To understand what last night's elections mean, you have to recognize what the media wants you to think it means.
The national news seems to have totally missed that Dem John Garamendi has won Ellen Tauscher’s open seat here in California. If reported at all, it's dismissed as, Oh, it's those California left-wing wackos! But California's 10th District historically has been a Republican district. Tauscher won as a fiscally conservative Democrat in the 90s. She often voted to the right of the majority of Dems except on social issues. She'd rather vote for corporations and bankers than for workers. Garamendi is a lot more progressive than Tauscher ever was. He wants us out of Afghanistan now. He wants a single-payer Medicare-like healthcare system (you know, the kind that works better at half the cost around the rest of the world), much farther to the left than is likely to be even considered in Congress.
The lesson in New York’s 23rd District, where the media spent much of its attention, is that there still aren’t enough crazies, even there, to elect a teabagger. The 23rd is a very conservative district. The last time anyone other than a Republican was elected to Congress there Ulysses S. Grant was in the White House. National Republican leaders like Sarah Palin, in undercutting the Republican candidate in favor of a teabagger, managed to do what Democrats hadn't been able to do in 150 years: elect a Democrat. Not that the guy who won is a flaming liberal. He was a Republican before the local Democrats asked him to run this year so I don't expect him to be announcing his solidarity with the proletariat anytime soon.
So, in Congress anyway, it's a plus one for the Democrats. Garamendi is a full Democrat, a half better than Tauscher, and the guy in the 23rd in New York is probably no better than half a Democrat.
On to the two governors' races.
First off, voting for governors is more about state issues than sending a message to Washington. That doesn't mean that national issues don't have an effect on statewide elections. Governors' races have more to do with how well politicians work, as opposed to political philosophies. The lower the office, the more responsibility there is for the potholes and the taxes.
Corzine was really hated in NJ and his car accident really crystalized it. Corzine got injured in an accident while his state SUV was speeding to a photo op. He wasn't wearing a seatbelt. The public probably could have forgiven Corzine being a whore for the camera who felt above the law if he had successfully governed the state. The problem is that New Jersey pays incredibly high taxes and the citizenry think that they're not getting their money's worth. The winner, Chris Christie, the tubby Republican who won the race, is a Rovian hack who’s probably got dirt on him from his prosecutor years. You know, the scandal surrounding the firing of federal prosecutors when Karl Rove was politicizing the federal prosecutors' offices. Christie was never in danger from Rove because he spent most of his time going after corrupt Democratic politicians, with the exception of his big terrorist case nabbing those pizza deliverers with Arab names who were planning on blowing up Fort Dix. For those who don't know New Jersey, corrupt politician is the norm. And since there are plenty of Democratic politicians I'm sure Christie had easy pickings. It's just that corruption in New Jersey knows no political boundaries, meaning that there may be a bag of money in Christie's past, no matter how squeaky clean he presents himself now. And if not in the past, probably in his future. (See "The Sopranos".)
I don't think that this election was so much a referendum on Obama as much as a referendum on Corzine. Jon Corzine is part of a wave of rich men who took their fortunes and bought themselves political offices in a kind of noblesse oblige. He made his billion at Goldman Sachs. The best quip of the day yesterday was from John Cole who noted that finally someone from Goldman Sachs lost his job.
A similar process of noblesse oblige was working across the Hudson. Billionaire Michael Bloomberg changed the term limits rule and then ran and bought his third term as New York City's mayor, although the no-name Democrat who ran against him actually came closer to winning than anyone expected. It should be noted that Bloomberg shed his Republican label for "Independent" for this election.
I know very little about Virginia politics except Richmond once was the capitol of the Confederacy and it has a larger than average African American population. The Dem candidate has been described as “weak”, I don’t know what that means in pundit terminology. The voters in this off-year election were whiter and older than the electorate that showed up at the polls in 2008. Some pundits have claimed that the governor's race in Virginia was a rebuke of Obama's healthcare plans. The problem with that is Deeds, the Democrat in the race, had come out against the Democratic healthcare plan and said he would opt out on the state level. In essence, Deeds proved what right-wing Dems prove time and again: in a race between a Republican and a Republican-lite, the Republican generally wins. The younger voters and African Americans were basically told that no matter who they voted for they weren't getting a real Democrat. So they stayed home.
Bob McDonnell, The Republican winner in Virginia, ran on the red meat issues that attract older, whiter Southern voters. For example, McDonnell was railing against gays and fornicators which almost guarantees he’ll be caught boning someone.
The passing of medical marijuana in Maine suggests that perhaps federal prosecutors should be elected. See this. Joseph Russionello, the Bush-appointed federal prosecutor for Northern California, says he's going to continue to bust medical marijuana clinics no matter that the voters in California voted for medical marijuana and the Attorney General directed federal prosecutors to lay off marijuana prosecutions in favor of more important crimes. Alas, the drug war continues.
Same-sex marriage? Sigh. The new law in Maine was voted down by the voters by a slim margin while the medical marijuana initiative passed. On one hand, a few years ago the idea that almost half of the voters would support gay marriages would be hard to believe. On the other hand, it's discouraging. Think of all the rights we could take away from each other if only we voted on it. This makes the current lawsuit in federal court over Prop 8 all the more important because it seems like the same dynamics (and people) were behind it. And until gay marriage is recognized on the federal level gay rights will always be unequal to heterosexuals. However, all was not lost:
Two-term councilman Mark Kleinschmidt, a death-penalty defense lawyer and gay rights activist, narrowly defeated colleague Matt Czajkowski to take the reins as mayor. Kleinschmidt had just 49 percent of the vote in the four-person mayoral race.
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The most important thing about these elections is how the media interprets them. Watch the spin. Measure the spin. That’s the game today. How the media interprets these elections says more about the media and what it wants you to believe than the reality of the elections.
Here's my spin:
The Dems gained a seat in the House although two Dems were elected. They lost two governorships, one because their candidate was hated and ineffective, one because the candidate was so much a Republican-lite that a lot of Dems stayed home. The road to equality for gays is long and hard. Maybe when enough people are stoned.
What should this say for the next election? If Democrats want to be elected they should run candidates that aren't hated and are different enough from Republicans to make a difference. The Republicans might want to reconsider their drift farther to the Right. They are alienating themselves from the middle and there aren't enough voters to buy into the tea-bag mythology.
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